WHY IS THE YEAR 2026 SO IMPORTANT? FORECASTING OF IMMERSIVE TECHNOLOGY INTEREST

 KSERA STUDIO:

Based on an analysis of the history of the immersive technology market (such as VR headsets and VR360 films, stereoscopic films, cinemas with dynamic seats, fulldome cinemas, and planetariums) from 1995 to the present, it is necessary to develop and justify a forecast for the next surge of interest in these technologies and products. Please indicate the duration of the intervals between previous periods of market growth. 

GEMINI:

IMMERSIVE TECH TIDES: FORECASTING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET INTEREST

1. INTRODUCTION

This report analyzes the history of the immersive technology market from 1995 to the present. The technologies under consideration include VR headsets, VR360 films, stereoscopic (3D) films, cinemas with dynamic seats (4D/Motion Simulators), and fulldome cinemas and planetariums. The aim of this research is to identify key trends in market development, determine the factors contributing to periods of increased interest in these technologies, and justify a forecast for the next surge of interest. Additionally, the report will attempt to determine the typical duration of the time period between such market upturns, allowing stakeholders to better understand market cycles and potential future opportunities. Immersive technologies have a rich history, but their penetration into the mass market has been uneven. Understanding past periods of growth and decline can provide valuable insights for forecasting future trends and making strategic decisions.

2. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF IMMERSIVE TECHNOLOGIES (1995-PRESENT)

Virtual Headsets

1995-2015: Early Attempts and Failures

The period from 1995 to 2015 was marked by numerous attempts to bring consumer VR headsets to market, but most of them faced significant technological limitations, high costs, and an unsatisfactory user experience. In 1995, the Forte VFX1, one of the first VR headsets for personal computers, appeared.1 In the same year, Nintendo released the Virtual Boy, a portable game console that was positioned as the first capable of displaying true 3D graphics.1 Despite its innovativeness, the device was a commercial failure due to the low display resolution, monochrome image, and discomfort during use.2 Less than 1 million units were sold.1 Sega also attempted to enter the VR market with the Sega VR projects (1993-1994), but the headset was never released due to development problems and concerns about user safety.1 In the mid-1990s, Virtual IO i-glasses and Sony Glasstron (1995-1996) appeared, representing attempts to create personal virtual displays.2 In 1997, Philips released Scuba VR, a VR headset for Windows with head tracking.2 The early 2000s saw the emergence of models such as IIS VFX3D (2000), Sony PUD-J5A (2002), and NVIS nVisor SX60 (2002).1 Thus, the early stage of VR headset development was characterized by active experimentation, but the technological limitations of the time prevented the creation of devices capable of conquering the mass market. The failures of some early products, such as the Nintendo Virtual Boy, may have shaped a skeptical attitude towards the technology among the public for a long time.

2012-Present: The Revival of VR

A significant turning point in the development of VR occurred in the early 2010s. In 2012, a successful Kickstarter project was launched to raise funds for the development of Oculus Rift DK1 (2013) and DK2 (2014), which sparked a new wave of interest in virtual reality.1 In 2014, Facebook acquired Oculus for $2 billion, which became an important signal for the entire industry.4 In 2016, the commercial version of Oculus Rift CV1 was released.1 Soon, other key players appeared on the market, such as HTC with the Vive headset (2016), focused on room-scale tracking 3, and Sony with PlayStation VR (2016), aimed at the console market.3 An important milestone was the emergence of standalone VR headsets, such as Oculus Go (2018) and Oculus Quest (2019).3 In 2020, Oculus Quest 2 was released, which, thanks to its affordable price and improved characteristics, contributed to a significant increase in VR sales and popularity.17 It is estimated that over 10 million units of this device were sold.19 In 2024, a new major player entered the market - Apple with the Vision Pro device, which emphasizes mixed reality.22 Thus, after 2012, a real renaissance of VR occurred, driven by significant technological progress, lower prices, and the emergence of more convenient and functional devices, which led to a noticeable increase in consumer interest. The success of Oculus Rift became a catalyst for many companies to enter the market, which stimulated competition and further innovation. The transition to standalone VR headsets, such as Oculus Quest, made the technology more accessible and attractive to a wide audience, as the need for powerful and expensive personal computers was eliminated.

VR360 Films

The history of VR360 films began with early forms of immersive cinema, such as Disney's Circarama, developed in 1955.25 Further development of VR360 video shooting and display technologies went in parallel with progress in the field of VR headsets.26 The increasing availability of VR headsets and the emergence of specialized platforms for content distribution, such as YouTube and Facebook, contributed to the popularization of VR360 films.27 Many examples of VR360 films on a wide variety of topics appeared, including documentary projects, artistic short films, and music videos.28 However, creating high-quality and engaging content in VR360 format turned out to be a difficult task, requiring solutions to problems with narration and directing.25 The audience's perception of VR360 films was mixed: along with novelty and engagement, some users experienced discomfort associated with motion sickness.25 Nevertheless, the VR and 360 video market shows significant growth potential, and, according to forecasts, its volume may reach $62.39 billion by 2032.31 Thus, VR360 films developed as an integral part of the virtual reality ecosystem, offering users a new way to immerse themselves in content. The success of this format largely depends on the further development of technologies, improvement of user experience, and the emergence of higher quality and more diverse content.

Stereoscopic Films (3D)

Stereoscopic cinema technology has a long history, marked by several periods of popularity spikes. In the 1950s, the first "golden age" of 3D cinema was observed, followed by a revival in the 1980s and 1990s thanks to the development of IMAX and Disney theme parks.32 3D cinema technologies have been constantly improving, from early anaglyph glasses with red-blue filters to modern polarization systems.32 In the 2000s, a new wave of interest in 3D occurred, which peaked after the release of James Cameron's "Avatar" in 2009.33 "Avatar" demonstrated the impressive capabilities of the 3D format and became the highest-grossing 3D film in history.35 However, after this peak, the popularity of 3D cinema declined again.33 Among the reasons for the decline in interest are problems with the quality of film conversion to 3D, discomfort when watching in special glasses, and the high cost of tickets for 3D screenings.38 Many viewers began to prefer the traditional 2D format.40 Nevertheless, in 2024, 19% of Americans still visit 3D cinemas, with the greatest popularity observed among the young audience aged 18-34 (33%).40 Thus, stereoscopic films have experienced several waves of popularity, but faced problems that led to a decrease in audience interest after the 2010s. The future of 3D in cinema may depend on the emergence of new technologies that will improve the quality and comfort of viewing, as well as on the creation of content that truly effectively uses the advantages of the three-dimensional format.

Cinemas with Dynamic Seats (4D/Motion Simulators)

Cinemas with dynamic seats represent a development of traditional film screenings, offering viewers a more immersive experience by synchronizing the movement of seats and various special effects with the action on the screen. One of the first commercial 4D cinemas is considered to be Sensorium, which opened in 1984.42 Subsequently, 4D technologies began to be actively implemented in major cinema chains, such as 4DX, D-Box, and Mediamation.42 The principle of operation of such cinemas is based on the use of special seats capable of moving in several planes, as well as the use of various effects, such as wind, water, and smells, which are synchronized with what is happening on the screen.44 Cinemas with dynamic seats have also become widespread in theme parks in the form of various simulator attractions.44 The popularity of 4D cinemas is growing worldwide, and the market for these technologies is showing significant growth.48 Thus, in the first half of 2017, attendance at 4DX cinemas reached a record 9.3 million viewers, and box office revenue amounted to $110 million.49 According to forecasts, the market for 4D dynamic seats may grow to $7.8 billion by 2033.51 Among the advantages of 4D cinemas, increased immersion in the film and increased audience engagement are noted.45 In 2024, 7% of Americans visit 4DX cinemas, with the greatest interest in this format shown by young people aged 18-34 (14%).40 Despite the growing popularity, the disadvantages of 4D cinemas include higher ticket prices and a limited number of films released in this format.46 Nevertheless, cinemas with dynamic seats continue to attract viewers seeking a more intense and interactive movie-watching experience.

Fulldome Cinemas and Planetariums

Fulldome cinemas and planetariums are immersive environments for displaying video on a dome-shaped screen. Their development history began with mechanical planetariums, which in the 1990s began to be actively replaced by digital projection systems.52 Among the first digital fulldome systems were Digistar from Evans & Sutherland and VisionDome from Alternate Realities Corporation.53 The transition to digital technologies significantly expanded the range of content shown in planetariums, from traditional astronomical shows to scientific visualizations, art installations, and entertainment programs.29 Attendance at planetariums in the 2000s showed an upward trend, although fluctuations were observed later.59 The annual attendance of planetariums worldwide in the mid-2010s was estimated at 110-150 million people.59 The development of specialized software contributed to the creation and display of increasingly high-quality and diverse fulldome content.54 Fulldome technologies are used not only in planetariums but also in other areas, such as concerts, corporate presentations, and festivals.62 Thus, fulldome cinemas and planetariums, thanks to the transition to digital technologies, have become more versatile and attractive to a wide audience, offering a unique experience of immersion in diverse content.

3. MARKET ANALYSIS AND ADOPTION TRENDS

VR Headset Sales Data (1995-Present)

Analysis of VR headset sales data for the period from 1995 to the present shows a wave-like market dynamic (Table 1). In 1995, less than 1 million units of Nintendo Virtual Boy were sold.1 Significant sales growth began after 2016, when the first commercially successful VR headsets entered the market. According to IDC forecasts, about 2 million headsets from Oculus, HTC, and Sony were sold in 2016.63 By 2018, the annual revenue of the VR market reached $3.6 billion.64 In 2020, according to Omdia, 6.4 million VR headsets were sold.21 At the same time, forecasts for 2020 from Juniper (30 million) and IDC (65 million) turned out to be significantly overestimated.63 In 2021, according to Statista, 14.2 million VR headsets were sold.66 In 2022, various sources provide sales data ranging from 10.8 to 19 million units.3 In 2023, according to KMA, 11.2 million VR headsets were sold 69, and sales revenue amounted to $9.1 billion (Startups Magazine).66 Forecasts for 2024 range from 11.2 million (IDC) to 14.31 million (KMA) units.22 IDC also reports a 10% growth in AR/VR headset shipments in 2024 22, while Counterpoint Research notes a 12% drop in the global VR market.23 Thus, VR headset sales show an upward trend, especially in recent years, indicating growing consumer interest in this technology. However, sales forecasts are not always accurate, which indicates the difficulty of predicting the pace of development of this market.

VR360 Film Market

The VR360 film market is part of the broader virtual and 360-degree reality market, which, according to Business Research Insights forecasts, will reach a volume of $62.39 billion by 2032.31 The growth of this market is driven by the increasing demand for immersive content in various fields, including online education, virtual tourism, and remote work, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.31 There is also the emergence and development of social VR platforms that allow users to interact in virtual space for games, participation in events, and collaboration.31

Stereoscopic Film Box Office Revenue

Stereoscopic film box office revenues peaked in the period from the late 2000s to the early 2010s, after the release of the film "Avatar" in 2009.33 However, a subsequent decline in interest in the 3D format was observed. In 2018, global box office revenue for 3D films fell by 20% compared to 2017 (MPAA data).37 Despite this, "Avatar" remains the highest-grossing 3D film in cinema history.36 In 2024, 19% of the American audience visits 3D cinemas, with this format being most popular among young people aged 18-34 (33%).40

Attendance at Cinemas with Dynamic Seats

Cinemas with dynamic seats, offering viewers a 4D experience, are gaining popularity worldwide.46 In the first half of 2017, 4DX cinema chain recorded a record attendance of 9.3 million viewers, and box office revenue amounted to $110 million.49 Forecasts indicate further growth in the 4D cinema market.48 In 2024, 7% of Americans visit 4DX cinemas, with the highest proportion of visitors in the 18-34 age group (14%).40

Attendance at Fulldome Cinemas and Planetariums

Attendance at fulldome cinemas and planetariums in the mid-2010s was estimated at 110-150 million people per year.59 There is an increase in the number of digital fulldome cinemas 71, as well as a trend towards expanding the range of content beyond astronomy.29

4. PUBLIC PERCEPTION AND INTEREST

Google Trends Data Analysis

Analysis of Google Trends data shows that the search query "VR headset" peaked in 2016, after which there was a decline in interest and its subsequent stabilization.20 At the same time, there is a growth in interest in specific products such as "Oculus Quest" and "Meta Quest".74 There is also a seasonality of interest in VR, with traditional peaks during the Christmas holidays.20

Summary of Survey Results and Public Perception Reports

According to surveys and reports, public perception of VR is becoming increasingly positive. In 2024, 23% of adults in the US owned VR devices.76 About half of respondents in 29 countries in 2022 expressed a positive attitude towards the use of VR/AR in everyday life.77 Young people demonstrate greater awareness of VR and greater interest in its use.78 The majority of VR users are satisfied with their experience.76 The main obstacles to buying VR headsets remain high cost, lack of quality content, and the problem of motion sickness.80 There are also concerns about the safety and privacy of data collected by VR devices.76 Positive perception of VR is directly related to the level of awareness of the technology.83 The main application of VR at the moment is entertainment and games.81

Discussion of Factors Influencing Public Interest

Public interest in immersive technologies is influenced by a number of factors, including the price of devices, the availability and quality of content, ease of use, comfort during prolonged use, social aspects, as well as the emergence of new applications and use cases.

5. DRIVERS OF MARKET SURGES

Virtual Headsets

The first significant surge of interest in VR headsets after 1995 occurred in the period from 2012 to 2016 and was driven by a technological breakthrough associated with the emergence of Oculus Rift and the release of the first commercially successful VR headsets, such as Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and PlayStation VR.4 The second significant rise was observed in 2020-2021 and was associated with the release of the standalone VR headset Oculus Quest 2 at an attractive price, as well as an increase in demand for home entertainment during the COVID-19 pandemic.17

VR360 Films

The surge of interest in VR360 films was largely driven by the increasing availability of VR headsets and the development of platforms for distributing VR content. The emergence of higher quality and more diverse VR360 content, especially in the genre of documentaries and immersive stories, also contributed to the growth in popularity of the format.

Stereoscopic Films (3D)

A significant rise in interest in stereoscopic films occurred in the late 2000s - early 2010s and was directly related to the release of technologically advanced 3D films, such as "Avatar," which clearly demonstrated the potential of the three-dimensional format.32

Cinemas with Dynamic Seats

Increased interest in cinemas with dynamic seats was caused by the introduction of 4D technologies in major cinema chains and the release of spectacular blockbusters specially adapted for the 4D format.

Fulldome Cinemas and Planetariums

The growth of interest in fulldome cinemas and planetariums was associated with the transition to digital projection systems, which significantly expanded the possibilities of content and increased the level of interactivity.53 The overall growth of interest in science and space also contributed to the popularization of planetariums.

6. FORECASTING THE NEXT UPTURN

Analysis of the current market state and potential catalysts suggests that the next significant surge of interest in immersive technologies will likely occur in the period 2026-2028. This forecast is based on the expected further development of VR/AR technologies, including improved display characteristics (e.g., micro-OLED), expanded field of view, reduced weight, and increased headset comfort.81 The development of the metaverse and related VR/AR applications will also be an important growth factor.4 An expansion of VR/AR use in the corporate sector for training, collaboration, and design is expected.4 The emergence of new forms of immersive content, such as interactive films, VR concerts, and virtual travel, will also contribute to the growth of interest.62 Further price reductions for VR/AR devices will make them more accessible to the mass consumer.20 The release of so-called "killer applications" - applications that will become a key factor for the mass adoption of VR/AR - may also provoke significant market growth.20 The integration of VR/AR with other advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence and 5G networks, will open up new possibilities for the use of immersive technologies.12 Finally, an increase in interest in VR in new areas, such as healthcare and education, is expected.4 It is expected that the period of increased interest may last 2-3 years, after which stabilization or a temporary decline is possible until the emergence of new breakthrough technologies or content.

7. DURATION OF THE TIME PERIOD BETWEEN MARKET UPTURNS

Analysis of the history of the VR headset market shows that the first significant upturn after 1995 was observed approximately 17-21 years later (2012-2016). The next significant upturn occurred approximately 4-5 years later (2020-2021). For stereoscopic films, the first major upturn after 1995 occurred 14 years later (2009), but no subsequent comparable upturn was observed. The market for cinemas with dynamic seats shows steady, albeit gradual, growth starting from the late 1990s - early 2000s, without pronounced periodic upturns. A similar situation is observed in the market for fulldome cinemas and planetariums, where after the transition to digital technologies in the late 1990s - early 2000s, gradual growth was observed without clearly expressed periodic surges. Thus, the time periods between significant upturns in the VR headset market are not strictly regular and can range from 4 to 15-20 years, depending on many factors, including the scale of technological innovations and overall market conditions. Shorter intervals between the latest upturns may indicate an acceleration in the pace of innovation in the VR industry.

8. CONCLUSION

The immersive technology market has come a long way since 1995, marked by both periods of stagnation and significant growth. The next surge of interest in VR headsets is expected to occur in the mid-to-late 2020s and will be driven by further technological development and the expansion of application areas. Other immersive technologies, such as 4D cinemas and fulldome planetariums, show steady growth without pronounced periodic upturns. Forecasting the exact timing and scale of market surges remains a difficult task, but the analysis of historical trends and current market drivers allows for a reasonable forecast. Investors and companies operating in the field of immersive technologies should closely monitor technological innovations, the emergence of new content, and changes in consumer preferences to respond in a timely manner to new opportunities in this rapidly developing industry.

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